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Reconciliation

When there are multiple values for the same measurement unit, the panel keeps every source's own figure but not selectively displays a single best value. This page compares them. The comparison is only worth reading once you know what kind of comparison it represents.

Derived

1,035 comparisons

Both sources publish the same underlying estimate. UNAIDS, the WHO Global Health Observatory and the World Bank largely republish the same Spectrum output, so agreement between them is arithmetic. Counting it as triangulation would manufacture confidence.

Subset

49 comparisons

One source measures a part of what the other measures. PEPFAR reports its own programme footprint, not the national total, so a gap is expected by construction and is not a contradiction.

Independent

143 comparisons

Separate measurement systems: Such as a national programme register against a modelled estimate, or OECD donor reporting against United States self-reporting. Only here that data differences in the same measurement unit carry information.

A further six comparisons had too few overlapping cells to classify, so we leave them unclassified instead of assigning them to a category.

How each verdict was reached

Inferred from the data, not assigned by hand

Each source pair is classified from its own overlapping cells and the evidence is written out alongside the verdict, so it can be checked or overridden. The thresholds are fixed in advance. We treat two sources as sharing an estimate when they agree within 2% on at least 90% of cells and the typical difference is under 1%; we treat one as a subset of the other when it is the smaller figure in at least 90% of cells and the median ratio passes 0.90; we do not classify at all when there are fewer than three cells.

IndicatorSource ASource BCells Median differenceRelationshipEvidence
External HIV financing from the United States (ODA) ForeignAssistance.gov OECD Creditor Reporting System 139 9.9% independent 139 cells, median rel. diff 9.9%; separate measurement systems, divergence is informative
Number of people on ART (PEPFAR MER TX_CURR) Thailand HIV Info Hub UNAIDS AIDSinfo 4 9.9% independent 4 cells, median rel. diff 9.9%; separate measurement systems, divergence is informative
Number of people on ART (PEPFAR MER TX_CURR) PEPFAR Panorama Spotlight UNAIDS AIDSinfo 39 122.8% subset pepfar_panorama is smaller in 95% of 39 cells (median ratio a/b 0.24); different scope, gap expected
Number newly diagnosed HIV-positive (PEPFAR MER HTS_TST_POS) PEPFAR Panorama Spotlight Thailand HIV Info Hub 5 150.3% subset pepfar_panorama is smaller in 100% of 5 cells (median ratio a/b 0.14); different scope, gap expected
Number of people on ART (PEPFAR MER TX_CURR) PEPFAR Panorama Spotlight Thailand HIV Info Hub 5 140.4% subset pepfar_panorama is smaller in 100% of 5 cells (median ratio a/b 0.18); different scope, gap expected
AIDS-related deaths (all ages) UNAIDS AIDSinfo WHO Global Health Observatory 225 0.0% derived agree within 2% on 100% of 225 cells (median rel. diff 0.00%); same underlying estimate, not corroboration
HIV prevalence, ages 15-49 UNAIDS AIDSinfo World Bank Open Data 225 0.0% derived agree within 2% on 100% of 225 cells (median rel. diff 0.00%); same underlying estimate, not corroboration
New HIV infections (all ages) UNAIDS AIDSinfo WHO Global Health Observatory 225 0.0% derived agree within 2% on 100% of 225 cells (median rel. diff 0.00%); same underlying estimate, not corroboration
People living with HIV (all ages) UNAIDS AIDSinfo WHO Global Health Observatory 225 0.0% derived agree within 2% on 100% of 225 cells (median rel. diff 0.00%); same underlying estimate, not corroboration
% of PLHIV on ART (2nd 95, PLHIV base) UNAIDS AIDSinfo WHO Global Health Observatory 135 0.0% derived agree within 2% on 100% of 135 cells (median rel. diff 0.00%); same underlying estimate, not corroboration
HIV prevalence, ages 15-49 Demographic and Health Surveys UNAIDS AIDSinfo 2 50.0% insufficient only 2 overlapping cell(s)
HIV prevalence, ages 15-49 Demographic and Health Surveys World Bank Open Data 2 50.0% insufficient only 2 overlapping cell(s)
Number of people on ART (PEPFAR MER TX_CURR) PEPFAR Panorama Spotlight Philippines DOH Epidemiology Bureau 1 60.9% insufficient only 1 overlapping cell(s)
People receiving PrEP Thailand HIV Info Hub UNAIDS AIDSinfo 1 24.8% insufficient only 1 overlapping cell(s)

The table shows 14 of 14 source pairs, ordered by relationship then by number of overlapping cells. The complete table is in the download.

Where independent sources disagree

52 material divergences

Only cells from independent pairs are shown, and only where both figures are large enough for a ratio to mean anything. A difference is called material above 10%. Cells below the materiality floor for their unit, or where one side is zero or negative, are set aside instead of being counted as disagreements.

CountryYearIndicator Source AValue A Source BValue BDifference
Philippines 2002 External HIV financing from the United States (ODA) ForeignAssistance.gov $1.9m OECD Creditor Reporting System $24k +195%
Thailand 2019 External HIV financing from the United States (ODA) ForeignAssistance.gov $52k OECD Creditor Reporting System $3.9m -195%
Thailand 2002 External HIV financing from the United States (ODA) ForeignAssistance.gov $165k OECD Creditor Reporting System $7.5m -191%
Philippines 2005 External HIV financing from the United States (ODA) ForeignAssistance.gov $2.4m OECD Creditor Reporting System $97k +185%
Indonesia 2002 External HIV financing from the United States (ODA) ForeignAssistance.gov $5.1m OECD Creditor Reporting System $926k +139%
Philippines 2004 External HIV financing from the United States (ODA) ForeignAssistance.gov $3.3m OECD Creditor Reporting System $16.9m -135%
Cambodia 2004 External HIV financing from the United States (ODA) ForeignAssistance.gov $8.6m OECD Creditor Reporting System $20.7m -82%
Thailand 2013 External HIV financing from the United States (ODA) ForeignAssistance.gov $10.8m OECD Creditor Reporting System $4.6m +80%
Thailand 2011 External HIV financing from the United States (ODA) ForeignAssistance.gov $3.2m OECD Creditor Reporting System $6.9m -72%
Vietnam 2019 External HIV financing from the United States (ODA) ForeignAssistance.gov $29.8m OECD Creditor Reporting System $15.6m +62%
Philippines 2003 External HIV financing from the United States (ODA) ForeignAssistance.gov $6.3m OECD Creditor Reporting System $10.6m -52%
Philippines 2009 External HIV financing from the United States (ODA) ForeignAssistance.gov $2.1m OECD Creditor Reporting System $1.3m +45%
Philippines 2015 External HIV financing from the United States (ODA) ForeignAssistance.gov $1.3m OECD Creditor Reporting System $806k +43%
Cambodia 2002 External HIV financing from the United States (ODA) ForeignAssistance.gov $4.8m OECD Creditor Reporting System $7.4m -42%
Cambodia 2019 External HIV financing from the United States (ODA) ForeignAssistance.gov $8.4m OECD Creditor Reporting System $5.6m +41%
Philippines 2021 External HIV financing from the United States (ODA) ForeignAssistance.gov $2.6m OECD Creditor Reporting System $4.0m -40%
Vietnam 2004 External HIV financing from the United States (ODA) ForeignAssistance.gov $6.2m OECD Creditor Reporting System $4.2m +38%
Indonesia 2022 External HIV financing from the United States (ODA) ForeignAssistance.gov $14.6m OECD Creditor Reporting System $10.0m +37%
Vietnam 2005 External HIV financing from the United States (ODA) ForeignAssistance.gov $12.9m OECD Creditor Reporting System $17.0m -28%
Indonesia 2018 External HIV financing from the United States (ODA) ForeignAssistance.gov $8.6m OECD Creditor Reporting System $11.0m -25%
Thailand 2020 External HIV financing from the United States (ODA) ForeignAssistance.gov $9.0m OECD Creditor Reporting System $11.3m -23%
Laos 2022 External HIV financing from the United States (ODA) ForeignAssistance.gov $1.7m OECD Creditor Reporting System $1.3m +23%
Thailand 2012 External HIV financing from the United States (ODA) ForeignAssistance.gov $4.1m OECD Creditor Reporting System $5.1m -22%
Laos 2005 External HIV financing from the United States (ODA) ForeignAssistance.gov $1.0m OECD Creditor Reporting System $800k +22%
Cambodia 2003 External HIV financing from the United States (ODA) ForeignAssistance.gov $14.3m OECD Creditor Reporting System $17.8m -22%
Cambodia 2006 External HIV financing from the United States (ODA) ForeignAssistance.gov $19.8m OECD Creditor Reporting System $16.0m +21%
Indonesia 2004 External HIV financing from the United States (ODA) ForeignAssistance.gov $11.2m OECD Creditor Reporting System $9.1m +21%
Thailand 2008 External HIV financing from the United States (ODA) ForeignAssistance.gov $5.9m OECD Creditor Reporting System $7.3m -21%
Cambodia 2022 External HIV financing from the United States (ODA) ForeignAssistance.gov $4.5m OECD Creditor Reporting System $3.7m +20%
Cambodia 2007 External HIV financing from the United States (ODA) ForeignAssistance.gov $19.5m OECD Creditor Reporting System $23.9m -20%
Indonesia 2010 External HIV financing from the United States (ODA) ForeignAssistance.gov $4.9m OECD Creditor Reporting System $4.0m +20%
Laos 2010 External HIV financing from the United States (ODA) ForeignAssistance.gov $1.2m OECD Creditor Reporting System $1.4m -18%
Laos 2011 External HIV financing from the United States (ODA) ForeignAssistance.gov $1.2m OECD Creditor Reporting System $1.0m +18%
Philippines 2022 External HIV financing from the United States (ODA) ForeignAssistance.gov $8.7m OECD Creditor Reporting System $7.4m +16%
Vietnam 2008 External HIV financing from the United States (ODA) ForeignAssistance.gov $40.0m OECD Creditor Reporting System $47.0m -16%
Thailand 2005 External HIV financing from the United States (ODA) ForeignAssistance.gov $7.5m OECD Creditor Reporting System $8.8m -16%
Laos 2012 External HIV financing from the United States (ODA) ForeignAssistance.gov $1.3m OECD Creditor Reporting System $1.1m +16%
Thailand 2022 External HIV financing from the United States (ODA) ForeignAssistance.gov $7.8m OECD Creditor Reporting System $6.7m +15%
Vietnam 2022 External HIV financing from the United States (ODA) ForeignAssistance.gov $23.9m OECD Creditor Reporting System $20.7m +14%
Thailand 2006 External HIV financing from the United States (ODA) ForeignAssistance.gov $5.0m OECD Creditor Reporting System $5.8m -14%

The table shows 40 of 52 cells, largest difference first.