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Reconciliation

Where two or more sources publish a figure for the same indicator, country and year, the panel keeps the figure from every source and does not pick a single best figure. The reconciliation page compares the figures from different sources. A matched figure is a figure from a first source set beside a figure from a second source for the same indicator, country, year, population group, sex and age group. A comparison of matched figures is useful only when the reader knows whether the two sources measure separately, republish the same estimate, or differ in scope.

Derived

54,090 comparisons

The two sources publish the same underlying estimate. UNAIDS, the WHO Global Health Observatory and the World Bank largely republish the output of Spectrum, the modelling software countries use for the annual UNAIDS estimates, so agreement between UNAIDS, WHO and the World Bank is arithmetic. Counting the agreement as confirmation from separate sources would overstate the confidence in the estimate.

Subset

1,858 comparisons

The source with the smaller figure covers only part of the population or the programme that the source with the larger figure covers. PEPFAR reports the results of the PEPFAR programme, not the national total, so a gap between a PEPFAR figure and a national figure is expected and is not a contradiction.

Independent

11,305 comparisons

The two sources come from separate measurement systems, for example a national programme register and a modelled estimate, or the OECD record of United States disbursements and the record the United States government publishes. Only for independent sources does a difference between two matched figures carry information.

A further 73 comparisons come from source pairs with fewer than three matched figures, and the panel does not classify a source pair with fewer than three matched figures.

How every source pair was classified

A fixed statistical rule, with 52 pairs classified from documents

The panel classifies every source pair from the matched figures of the pair and prints the basis for the classification beside the classification, so a reader can check the result. The thresholds were fixed before any pair was classified. Two sources are treated as publishing the same estimate when the two sources agree within 2% on at least 90% of matched figures and the median difference is under 1%. A source is treated as covering part of what a second source covers when the first source gives the smaller figure on at least 90% of matched figures and the median ratio of the smaller figure to the larger figure is 0.90 or below. A source pair with fewer than three matched figures is not classified. 52 source pairs are classified from documents instead of by the rule, because the documents show that the two sources print the same national count, and the Basis column of a pair classified from documents names the documents.

IndicatorSource ASource BMatched figures Median differenceRelationshipBasis
External HIV financing from the United States (ODA) ForeignAssistance.gov OECD Creditor Reporting System 1608 12.6% independent 1,608 matched figures, with a median difference of 12.6 per cent.
Number of people on ART (PEPFAR MER TX_CURR) Global Fund Data Service WHO Global Health Observatory 773 0.5% independent 773 matched figures, with a median difference of 0.5 per cent.
Number of people on ART (PEPFAR MER TX_CURR) Global Fund Data Service UNAIDS AIDSinfo 684 1.7% independent 656 matched figures, with a median difference of 1.7 per cent. A further 28 matched figures are printed by a source as a bound, for example <100, and are set aside.
HIV-positive TB patients started or continued on ART Global Fund Data Service WHO Global Tuberculosis Programme 571 2.8% independent 571 matched figures, with a median difference of 2.8 per cent.
Number newly diagnosed HIV-positive (PEPFAR MER HTS_TST_POS) PEPFAR testing by modality PEPFAR Panorama Spotlight 415 0.0% independent 415 matched figures, with a median difference of 0.0 per cent.
Pregnant women with HIV who received ARVs for PMTCT Global Fund Data Service WHO Global Health Observatory 413 4.0% independent 413 matched figures, with a median difference of 4.0 per cent.
TB patients with an HIV test result recorded Global Fund Data Service WHO Global Tuberculosis Programme 401 1.4% independent 401 matched figures, with a median difference of 1.4 per cent.
Number of people on ART (PEPFAR MER TX_CURR) Global Fund Data Service PEPFAR Panorama Spotlight 366 29.8% independent 366 matched figures, with a median difference of 29.8 per cent.
Number of people on ART (PEPFAR MER TX_CURR) PEPFAR Panorama Spotlight WHO Global Health Observatory 365 33.4% independent 365 matched figures, with a median difference of 33.4 per cent.
Global Fund HIV disbursements to the country IATI, through d-portal UNAIDS Global AIDS Monitoring expenditure database 357 37.3% independent 357 matched figures, with a median difference of 37.3 per cent.
Pregnant women with HIV who received ARVs for PMTCT Global Fund Data Service UNAIDS AIDSinfo 357 4.9% independent 357 matched figures, with a median difference of 4.9 per cent.
Global Fund HIV disbursements to the country OECD Creditor Reporting System UNAIDS Global AIDS Monitoring expenditure database 326 40.4% independent 326 matched figures, with a median difference of 40.4 per cent.
Number of people on ART (PEPFAR MER TX_CURR) PEPFAR Panorama Spotlight UNAIDS AIDSinfo 326 32.2% independent 326 matched figures, with a median difference of 32.2 per cent.
HIV tests performed with the result returned to the person Global Fund Data Service WHO HIV testing services dashboard 307 163.4% independent 307 matched figures, with a median difference of 163.4 per cent.
People newly enrolled on ART during the year PEPFAR Panorama Spotlight WHO Global Tuberculosis Programme 266 34.3% independent 266 matched figures, with a median difference of 34.3 per cent.
HIV tests performed with the result returned to the person Global Fund Data Service PEPFAR testing by modality 216 65.8% independent 216 matched figures, with a median difference of 65.8 per cent.
HIV tests performed with the result returned to the person Global Fund Data Service PEPFAR Panorama Spotlight 216 67.3% independent 216 matched figures, with a median difference of 67.3 per cent.
HIV tests performed with the result returned to the person Global Fund Data Service UNAIDS AIDSinfo 210 165.7% independent 210 matched figures, with a median difference of 165.7 per cent.
People receiving PrEP PEPFAR Panorama Spotlight UNAIDS AIDSinfo 200 48.8% independent 179 matched figures, with a median difference of 48.8 per cent. A further 21 matched figures are printed by a source as a bound, for example <100, and are set aside.
TB patients recorded as HIV-positive PEPFAR Panorama Spotlight WHO Global Tuberculosis Programme 197 26.8% independent 197 matched figures, with a median difference of 26.8 per cent.
HIV tests performed at a health facility PEPFAR testing by modality WHO HIV testing services dashboard 185 155.1% independent 185 matched figures, with a median difference of 155.1 per cent.
Number of people on ART (PEPFAR MER TX_CURR) UNAIDS AIDSinfo WHO Global Tuberculosis Programme 180 2.0% independent 171 matched figures, with a median difference of 2.0 per cent. A further nine matched figures are printed by a source as a bound, for example <100, and are set aside.
Number of people on ART (PEPFAR MER TX_CURR) WHO Global Health Observatory WHO Global Tuberculosis Programme 178 0.2% independent 178 matched figures, with a median difference of 0.2 per cent.
Pregnant women with HIV who received ARVs for PMTCT PEPFAR Panorama Spotlight UNAIDS AIDSinfo 164 24.4% independent 164 matched figures, with a median difference of 24.4 per cent.
Pregnant women with HIV who received ARVs for PMTCT Global Fund Data Service PEPFAR Panorama Spotlight 163 44.2% independent 163 matched figures, with a median difference of 44.2 per cent.
HIV tests performed with the result returned to the person Global Fund Data Service WHO Global Health Observatory 159 170.5% independent 159 matched figures, with a median difference of 170.5 per cent.
Number of people on ART (PEPFAR MER TX_CURR) Global Fund Data Service WHO Global Tuberculosis Programme 156 0.0% independent 156 matched figures, with a median difference of 0.0 per cent.
Number of people on ART (PEPFAR MER TX_CURR) PEPFAR Panorama Spotlight WHO Global Tuberculosis Programme 112 24.2% independent 112 matched figures, with a median difference of 24.2 per cent.
HIV tests performed through community outreach PEPFAR testing by modality WHO HIV testing services dashboard 110 121.4% independent 110 matched figures, with a median difference of 121.4 per cent.
Voluntary medical male circumcisions performed PEPFAR voluntary medical male circumcision UNAIDS AIDSinfo 108 20.7% independent 108 matched figures, with a median difference of 20.7 per cent.
Voluntary medical male circumcisions performed PEPFAR Panorama Spotlight UNAIDS AIDSinfo 98 16.5% independent 98 matched figures, with a median difference of 16.5 per cent.
People newly enrolled on ART during the year Global Fund Data Service PEPFAR Panorama Spotlight 87 70.6% independent 87 matched figures, with a median difference of 70.6 per cent.
HIV prevalence, ages 15-49 Demographic and Health Surveys UNAIDS AIDSinfo 80 10.2% independent 80 matched figures, with a median difference of 10.2 per cent.
HIV prevalence, ages 15-49 Demographic and Health Surveys World Bank Open Data 80 10.2% independent 80 matched figures, with a median difference of 10.2 per cent.
People newly enrolled on ART during the year Global Fund Data Service WHO Global Tuberculosis Programme 75 3.6% independent 75 matched figures, with a median difference of 3.6 per cent.
PEPFAR expenditure, all US agencies PEPFAR budgets and expenditure UNAIDS Global AIDS Monitoring expenditure database 72 11.8% independent 72 matched figures, with a median difference of 11.8 per cent.
Number newly diagnosed HIV-positive (PEPFAR MER HTS_TST_POS) Global Fund Data Service PEPFAR testing by modality 58 40.7% independent 58 matched figures, with a median difference of 40.7 per cent.
Number newly diagnosed HIV-positive (PEPFAR MER HTS_TST_POS) Global Fund Data Service PEPFAR Panorama Spotlight 58 40.7% independent 58 matched figures, with a median difference of 40.7 per cent.
Number of people on ART (PEPFAR MER TX_CURR) WHO Global Health Observatory Thembisa model, University of Cape Town 50 6.3% independent 50 matched figures, with a median difference of 6.3 per cent.
PEPFAR expenditure, all US agencies PEPFAR operating-unit budgets UNAIDS Global AIDS Monitoring expenditure database 46 7.2% independent 46 matched figures, with a median difference of 7.2 per cent.

The table shows 40 of 231 source pairs, ordered by relationship and then by the number of matched figures. The complete table is in the download.

Where independent sources disagree

5291 material differences

The table lists matched figures from independent source pairs only, and only where the figure from source A and the figure from source B are large enough for a ratio to be meaningful. A difference above 10% counts as material. A matched figure is set aside, and not counted as a disagreement, when the figure from source A or the figure from source B is below the minimum size the panel sets for the unit, is zero, or is negative.

CountryYearIndicator Source AValue A Source BValue BDifference
India 2019 HIV tests performed at a health facility PEPFAR testing by modality 218 WHO HIV testing services dashboard 51,207,840 -200%
China 2018 People newly enrolled on ART during the year PEPFAR Panorama Spotlight 7 WHO Global Tuberculosis Programme 127,725 -200%
South Africa 2002 External HIV financing from the United States (ODA) ForeignAssistance.gov $15.4m OECD Creditor Reporting System $1k +200%
Kazakhstan 2022 HIV tests performed at a health facility PEPFAR testing by modality 642 WHO HIV testing services dashboard 3,793,631 -200%
India 2020 HIV tests performed at a health facility PEPFAR testing by modality 6,567 WHO HIV testing services dashboard 38,801,163 -200%
Malawi 2017 Global Fund HIV disbursements to the country OECD Creditor Reporting System $21k UNAIDS Global AIDS Monitoring expenditure database $89.8m -200%
India 2020 HIV tests performed with the result returned to the person Global Fund Data Service 41,425,171 PEPFAR testing by modality 12,003 +200%
India 2020 HIV tests performed with the result returned to the person Global Fund Data Service 41,425,171 PEPFAR Panorama Spotlight 12,003 +200%
Nepal 2022 HIV tests performed through community outreach PEPFAR testing by modality 255 WHO HIV testing services dashboard 298,847 -200%
India 2022 HIV tests performed at a health facility PEPFAR testing by modality 56,184 WHO HIV testing services dashboard 60,217,984 -200%
Ghana 2020 TB patients recorded as HIV-positive PEPFAR Panorama Spotlight 2 WHO Global Tuberculosis Programme 2,118 -200%
Trinidad and Tobago 2024 HIV tests performed at a health facility PEPFAR testing by modality 63 WHO HIV testing services dashboard 66,618 -200%
Rwanda 2022 TB patients recorded as HIV-positive PEPFAR Panorama Spotlight 1 WHO Global Tuberculosis Programme 925 -200%
Senegal 2025 Pregnant women with HIV who received ARVs for PMTCT Global Fund Data Service 1,613 PEPFAR Panorama Spotlight 2 +200%
India 2023 HIV tests performed at a health facility PEPFAR testing by modality 77,528 WHO HIV testing services dashboard 61,237,799 -199%
Kyrgyzstan 2023 HIV tests performed at a health facility PEPFAR testing by modality 1,111 WHO HIV testing services dashboard 785,451 -199%
India 2024 HIV tests performed at a health facility PEPFAR testing by modality 100,625 WHO HIV testing services dashboard 66,711,778 -199%
Botswana 2019 TB patients recorded as HIV-positive PEPFAR Panorama Spotlight 2 WHO Global Tuberculosis Programme 1,296 -199%
Senegal 2020 HIV tests performed at a health facility PEPFAR testing by modality 1,014 WHO HIV testing services dashboard 652,233 -199%
Kyrgyzstan 2024 HIV tests performed at a health facility PEPFAR testing by modality 1,242 WHO HIV testing services dashboard 747,082 -199%
Liberia 2024 HIV tests performed with the result returned to the person Global Fund Data Service 285 UNAIDS AIDSinfo 169,650 -199%
Liberia 2024 HIV tests performed with the result returned to the person Global Fund Data Service 285 WHO Global Health Observatory 169,650 -199%
Liberia 2024 HIV tests performed with the result returned to the person Global Fund Data Service 285 WHO HIV testing services dashboard 169,650 -199%
Mozambique 2002 External HIV financing from the United States (ODA) ForeignAssistance.gov $9k OECD Creditor Reporting System $5.1m -199%
Bangladesh 2016 External HIV financing from the United States (ODA) ForeignAssistance.gov $1.1m OECD Creditor Reporting System $2k +199%
India 2021 HIV tests performed with the result returned to the person Global Fund Data Service 23,082,931 PEPFAR Panorama Spotlight 43,056 +199%
India 2021 HIV tests performed with the result returned to the person Global Fund Data Service 23,082,931 PEPFAR testing by modality 43,056 +199%
Kyrgyzstan 2022 HIV tests performed at a health facility PEPFAR testing by modality 1,278 WHO HIV testing services dashboard 662,539 -199%
Senegal 2023 Pregnant women with HIV who received ARVs for PMTCT PEPFAR Panorama Spotlight 3 UNAIDS AIDSinfo 1,404 -199%
Myanmar 2025 People newly enrolled on ART during the year Global Fund Data Service 18,625 PEPFAR Panorama Spotlight 40 +199%
Peru 2021 Number of people on ART (PEPFAR MER TX_CURR) PEPFAR Panorama Spotlight 173 UNAIDS AIDSinfo 80,000 -199%
Peru 2021 Number of people on ART (PEPFAR MER TX_CURR) PEPFAR Panorama Spotlight 173 WHO Global Health Observatory 79,924 -199%
Kyrgyzstan 2024 HIV tests performed through community outreach PEPFAR testing by modality 148 WHO HIV testing services dashboard 68,068 -199%
Panama 2018 Number of people on ART (PEPFAR MER TX_CURR) PEPFAR Panorama Spotlight 31 WHO Global Health Observatory 14,171 -199%
Peru 2021 Number of people on ART (PEPFAR MER TX_CURR) Global Fund Data Service 78,171 PEPFAR Panorama Spotlight 173 +199%
Senegal 2023 Pregnant women with HIV who received ARVs for PMTCT Global Fund Data Service 1,293 PEPFAR Panorama Spotlight 3 +199%
Liberia 2024 HIV tests performed with the result returned to the person Global Fund Data Service 285 PEPFAR Panorama Spotlight 121,407 -199%
Liberia 2024 HIV tests performed with the result returned to the person Global Fund Data Service 285 PEPFAR testing by modality 121,407 -199%
Panama 2018 Number of people on ART (PEPFAR MER TX_CURR) PEPFAR Panorama Spotlight 31 UNAIDS AIDSinfo 13,000 -199%
Panama 2018 Number of people on ART (PEPFAR MER TX_CURR) Global Fund Data Service 12,791 PEPFAR Panorama Spotlight 31 +199%

The table shows 40 of 5291 material differences, largest difference first.