Southeast Asia

Disbursements reported to the OECD by all donors, by the United States alone, and by the Global Fund, summed across the nine countries. A year is drawn only when at least seven of the nine countries reported for that year, because a total built from four or five countries is low for a reason that has nothing to do with how much money was disbursed. For all donors combined, all nine countries reported in every year. For the United States, fewer than seven countries reported in 2002. For the Global Fund, fewer than seven countries reported in 2003, 2004, 2006 and 2007, so its line is broken between 2005 and 2008 and 2005 is drawn as a single point.

These two records are the panel's one independent pair on funding: (1) what the United States reports to the OECD, and (2) what it publishes itself. Where they diverge, the divergence carries meaningful information instead of being an artefact of republication. The self-reported series runs later because it is filed on a fiscal year. The point at 2026 is drawn from a reporting period that is still open or that the source marks as incomplete, and is shown as an open ring. Do not read it as a fall.

Modelled estimates for the nine countries combined. The gap between the two lines is the treatment gap, and it is the quantity most exposed to a change in external financing.