Phase 9  ·  Eight regions published

What happens to HIV services when the funding is withdrawn

The United States has restructured the country's global health assistance under the America First Global Health Strategy. Our project brings together the published record of what followed the restructuring, including donor funding, epidemic estimates, treatment coverage and the records published by national HIV programmes. The aim of our project is to measure how the restructuring affects HIV programmes in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Southeast Asia, South Asia, East Asia and the Pacific, Eastern and Southern Africa, Western and Central Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Eastern Europe and Central Asia are covered, and we will extend the coverage region by region until all eight LMIC regions are covered.

   

453,024
observations, with the source and the retrieval date on every row
74
sources, from international estimates to national programme registers
150
indicators, on one common vocabulary
1995–2026
years covered
33
of 36 bilateral agreements signed so far cover HIV

Regions

Eight of eight published

Southeast Asia is the pilot region of our project. Southeast Asia, South Asia, East Asia and the Pacific, Eastern and Southern Africa, Western and Central Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, the Middle East and North Africa, and Eastern Europe and Central Asia now have published region pages. Point at any region to see the countries in the region.

A country tagged AT SOURCE is read at source, which means that our project reads the figures for the country directly from a national publisher, for example the national HIV programme, the health ministry, the national statistics office or, for South Africa, the Thembisa model of the University of Cape Town and, for India, the HIV estimates of the National AIDS Control Organisation (NACO). A country without a tag appears only through international and donor bodies that compile figures across many countries, for example UNAIDS, the WHO, the World Bank, the OECD, the Global Fund and PEPFAR. Indonesia carries the COMMUNITY tag, because our project also reads reports from community-led monitoring of health facilities in Indonesia. Our project also reads reports from community-led monitoring at selected Indian facilities, and India carries the AT SOURCE tag for the NACO estimates.

Southeast Asia 9 Published Southeast Asia Cambodia, the Philippines and Thailand are read at source, and Indonesia has reports from community-led monitoring.
  • CambodiaAT SOURCE
  • IndonesiaCOMMUNITY
  • Laos
  • Malaysia
  • Myanmar
  • PhilippinesAT SOURCE
  • ThailandAT SOURCE
  • Timor-Leste
  • Vietnam
9 countries 31,169 observations 125 indicators 2000–2026 Open the region page →
South Asia 8 Published South Asia Bangladesh, India, the Maldives, Nepal and Sri Lanka are read at source, India through the HIV estimates of the National AIDS Control Organisation.
  • Afghanistan
  • BangladeshAT SOURCE
  • Bhutan
  • IndiaAT SOURCE
  • MaldivesAT SOURCE
  • NepalAT SOURCE
  • Pakistan
  • Sri LankaAT SOURCE
8 countries 18,858 observations 126 indicators 2000–2026 Open the region page →
East Asia and the Pacific 13 Published East Asia and the Pacific China, Mongolia, North Korea, Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands and Vanuatu are read at source.
  • ChinaAT SOURCE
  • Fiji
  • Kiribati
  • Marshall Islands
  • Micronesia
  • MongoliaAT SOURCE
  • North KoreaAT SOURCE
  • Papua New GuineaAT SOURCE
  • Samoa
  • Solomon IslandsAT SOURCE
  • Tonga
  • Tuvalu
  • VanuatuAT SOURCE
13 countries 10,364 observations 107 indicators 2000–2026 Open the region page →
Eastern and Southern Africa 22 Published Eastern and Southern Africa South Africa is read at source, through the Thembisa model of the University of Cape Town.
  • Angola
  • Botswana
  • Burundi
  • Comoros
  • Eritrea
  • Eswatini
  • Ethiopia
  • Kenya
  • Lesotho
  • Madagascar
  • Malawi
  • Mauritius
  • Mozambique
  • Namibia
  • Rwanda
  • Somalia
  • South AfricaAT SOURCE
  • South Sudan
  • Tanzania
  • Uganda
  • Zambia
  • Zimbabwe
22 countries 116,942 observations 122 indicators 2000–2026 Open the region page →
Western and Central Africa 24 Published Western and Central Africa Nigeria, Cameroon, Niger, Guinea and Chad are read at source.
  • Benin
  • Burkina Faso
  • Cabo Verde
  • CameroonAT SOURCE
  • Central African Republic
  • ChadAT SOURCE
  • Congo
  • Côte d'Ivoire
  • DR Congo
  • Equatorial Guinea
  • Gabon
  • Gambia
  • Ghana
  • GuineaAT SOURCE
  • Guinea-Bissau
  • Liberia
  • Mali
  • Mauritania
  • NigerAT SOURCE
  • NigeriaAT SOURCE
  • São Tomé and Príncipe
  • Senegal
  • Sierra Leone
  • Togo
24 countries 85,732 observations 134 indicators 2000–2026 Open the region page →
Latin America and the Caribbean 23 Published Latin America and the Caribbean Argentina, Belize, Bolivia, Haiti, Nicaragua, Paraguay and Peru are read at source.
  • ArgentinaAT SOURCE
  • BelizeAT SOURCE
  • BoliviaAT SOURCE
  • Brazil
  • Colombia
  • Costa Rica
  • Cuba
  • Dominican Republic
  • Ecuador
  • El Salvador
  • Guatemala
  • Guyana
  • HaitiAT SOURCE
  • Honduras
  • Jamaica
  • Mexico
  • NicaraguaAT SOURCE
  • Panama
  • ParaguayAT SOURCE
  • PeruAT SOURCE
  • Suriname
  • Trinidad and Tobago
  • Venezuela
23 countries 67,485 observations 121 indicators 1995–2026 Open the region page →
Middle East and North Africa 14 Published Middle East and North Africa Lebanon is read at source.
  • Algeria
  • Djibouti
  • Egypt
  • Iran
  • Iraq
  • Jordan
  • LebanonAT SOURCE
  • Libya
  • Morocco
  • State of Palestine
  • Sudan
  • Syria
  • Tunisia
  • Yemen
14 countries 25,545 observations 87 indicators 2000–2026 Open the region page →
Eastern Europe and Central Asia 17 Published Eastern Europe and Central Asia Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Montenegro, Tajikistan and Ukraine are read at source.
  • Albania
  • ArmeniaAT SOURCE
  • Azerbaijan
  • BelarusAT SOURCE
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina
  • GeorgiaAT SOURCE
  • KazakhstanAT SOURCE
  • KyrgyzstanAT SOURCE
  • Moldova
  • MontenegroAT SOURCE
  • North Macedonia
  • Serbia
  • TajikistanAT SOURCE
  • Türkiye
  • Turkmenistan
  • UkraineAT SOURCE
  • Uzbekistan
17 countries 33,948 observations 117 indicators 2000–2026 Open the region page →

What our panel holds

453,024 observations  ·  1995–2026

Every row records the source of the figure, the URL the figure was read from and the date of retrieval. Where two sources report the same figure, the panel keeps the two rows, and no figure is averaged with another.

Financing

What donors report disbursing, and what countries report spending. The OECD record of United States disbursements and the record the United States government publishes on ForeignAssistance.gov are kept separate, because the two records are compiled independently.

41,072 rows
67 indicators
WHO Global Tuberculosis ProgrammeIATI, through d-portalOECD Creditor Reporting System

Treatment cascade

Diagnosis, treatment and viral suppression. Modelled coverage estimates sit beside programme counts from national registers, and the panel never merges a modelled estimate with a register count, because a model and a register measure different things.

126,021 rows
53 indicators
PEPFAR results by provinceWHO Global Health ObservatoryUNAIDS AIDSinfo

Epidemic estimates

People living with HIV, new infections, deaths and prevalence. Almost every epidemic estimate in the panel comes from the annual UNAIDS modelling round, whichever body publishes the estimate.

259,500 rows
10 indicators
UNICEF HIV/AIDS datasetUNAIDS AIDSinfoWHO Global Health Observatory

Prevention and outreach

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and key-population outreach. Outreach figures are counts of people reached over a period, summed to a year, and not counts of people at a single date.

12,946 rows
8 indicators
Demographic and Health SurveysPEPFAR results by provinceGlobal Fund Data Service

Service access

What service users report about stockouts, interruptions, staffing and cost. The reports come from a small number of selected facilities and are not a representative sample.

60 rows
8 indicators
CLM Asia

Population denominators

Total population, used as the denominator for coverage and rates.

10,822 rows
3 indicators
World Bank Open DataUNAIDS AIDSinfoUNAIDS HIV sub-national estimates viewer (Naomi)

Reconciliation

Most agreement between sources is republication, not corroboration.

UNAIDS, the WHO Global Health Observatory and the World Bank largely publish the same modelled estimate. When UNAIDS, the WHO and the World Bank agree, the agreement follows from the shared estimate. Counting agreement between copies of a single estimate as independent confirmation would create confidence that the data do not support.

Of 67,326 pairwise comparisons across the panel, 80% fall between sources that share an underlying estimate. Only 11,305 comparisons, on 79 source pairs, are between separate measurement systems, where the data differences carry meaningful information.

Every classification is inferred from the data and published with the figures that support the classification, namely the number of matched figures, the median relative difference, the share of matches that agree within 2 per cent and the share in which the same source gives the smaller figure. A reader can check any classification against the published figures.

Read the reconciliation

Comparisons by relationship

  • 54,090 Derived (the same estimate, republished)
  • 1,858 Subset (sources that differ in scope)
  • 11,305 Independent (separate measurement systems)
  • 73 Insufficient (too few matched figures to classify)
5291
material differences between comparable figures
802
matched figures set aside as immaterial or not comparable
8887
rows carrying a data-quality flag

How the panel is built

Feasibility in eight regions

Structured sources only

Figures come from machine-readable feeds and from published tables. Prose is never parsed for numbers, and no language model is used at any step of the data collection. Where a country does not publish in a usable form, the site says so instead of estimating. Reading structured sources only is designed to maximise data accuracy and to avoid data contamination.

Read at source where possible

National programme reporting is the primary record, and the international and donor bodies that compile figures across many countries provide the cross-check. National sources are read directly in 35 countries, namely Thailand, Cambodia and the Philippines in Southeast Asia, Bangladesh, India, the Maldives, Nepal and Sri Lanka in South Asia, China, Mongolia, North Korea, Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands and Vanuatu in East Asia and the Pacific, South Africa in Eastern and Southern Africa, Nigeria, Cameroon, Niger, Guinea and Chad in Western and Central Africa, Argentina, Belize, Bolivia, Haiti, Nicaragua, Paraguay and Peru in Latin America and the Caribbean, and Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Montenegro, Tajikistan and Ukraine in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Our project also reads community-led monitoring reports for Indonesia and India. Every other country appears through international and donor reporting alone, and every country page names the sources used for the country.

Uncertainty is kept

Modelled estimates come with uncertainty intervals, and the panel stores and draws the intervals. Reporting periods that are still open are marked, because plotting a partial year as a complete year would understate the total for the year when only part of the year's funding has been reported.

Southeast Asia

Read at source
Community monitoring
Read at source
Read at source
Access to be sought
Aggregators only
Access to be sought
Access to be sought
Aggregators only

South Asia

Read at source
Model at source
Read at source
Read at source
Read at source
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only

East Asia and the Pacific

Read at source
Read at source
Read at source
Read at source
Read at source
Read at source
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only

Eastern and Southern Africa

Model at source
Aggregators only
Lead to follow
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Lead to follow
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Lead to follow
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only

Western and Central Africa

Read at source
Read at source
Read at source
Read at source
Read at source
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only

Latin America and the Caribbean

Read at source
Read at source
Read at source
Read at source
Read at source
Read at source
Read at source
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only

Middle East and North Africa

Read at source
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only

Eastern Europe and Central Asia

Read at source
Read at source
Read at source
Read at source
Read at source
Read at source
Read at source
Read at source
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
Aggregators only
  • Read at source. Our project reads the figures for the country directly from a national publisher, for example the national HIV programme, the health ministry or the national statistics office.
  • Model at source. Our project reads the estimates for the country directly from the country's official HIV model.
  • Community monitoring. No national publisher can be read, and our project adds reports from community-led monitoring of health facilities to the international and donor figures.
  • Access to be sought. A national source exists but is closed to the public, so access has to be requested.
  • Lead to follow. A national host answers requests, but no usable data source has yet been found on the host.
  • Aggregators only. The country appears only through international and donor bodies that compile figures across many countries, for example UNAIDS, the WHO, the World Bank, the OECD, the Global Fund and PEPFAR, including PEPFAR's results by province where PEPFAR works.
  • The full assessment of national sources is on the Methods page.